Tea Party 2007 Snapshot

Tea Party '07 snapshot - December 16, 2007

This is a snapshot of December 16th donations at 11:59pm.
live tracking here

As of 12/17/07 12:00am	Moving Avg¹	Since Oct 1
Cash Collected	—⁴	$17.91M	$5922.58K $329.72K — $5.922M⁵
Cashflow	$0.495K/min $29.67K/hr $712.2K/day $5M/wk $21M/mo	$0.161K/min $9.68K/hr $232.4K/day $2M/wk $7M/mo	$4.124K/min $6.67K/min $5.946K/min $4.124K/min $247.46K/hr $400.2K/hr $356.79K/hr $247.46K/hr $5.9M/day⁵ $9.6M/day⁵ $8.6M/day⁵ $5.9M/day⁵ $42M/wk $67M/wk $60M/wk $42M/wk $178M/mo $288M/mo $257M/mo $178M/mo
Daily Cashflow	$712.2K/day	$232.4K/day	$5.9M/day $9.6M/day $8.6M/day $5.9M/day
Total Donors	—⁴	200648	57668 4259 — 57668
Donor Rate	294ppl/hr	109ppl/hr	2409ppl/hr 5169ppl/hr 4967ppl/hr 2409ppl/hr
Donation size	$101/person	$89/person	$103/person $77/person $72/person $103/person
Projection for	$18.62M² $22.89M² $27.88M² $28.59M²	$18.14M $19.53M $21.16M $21.39M	$23.85M $27.52M $48.75M $23.85M $59.49M $85.15M $233.72M $59.49M $101.06M $152.38M $449.51M $101.06M $106.99M $161.98M $480.32M $106.99M
Q4 Projection	$28.59M²	$21.39M	$106.99M $161.98M $480.32M $106.99M

Check the official Ron Paul press release for absolutely exact numbers.

Donations Collected, in $1000

Donation Rate³, in $1000 per hour

Number of People Donating Per Hour

Donation Size, in $

Notes:

These projections use a continuous exponential moving average with a half-life of 3 days. This is more appropriate than using OLS, since the donation data does not seem to satisfy the assumptions of the Gauss-Markov Thm (The best would probably be an exponential ARMA model, but I'm not sure people won't look at me funny if I do that).
The Exponential Moving Average is the best Q4 prediction method for various mathy reasons.
The points on the rate graphs are smoothed to a normal curve with a standard deviation of 15 minutes.
Moving Average totals are at best meaningless, and at worst misleading here, since we know both the exact value and the general trend (donations will always increase). Thus all a moving average of a total would do is lag behind, and why it is omitted here.
This number does not include offline donations, of which there were $402,000

This is a snaphot of the Tea Party '07 moneybomb.

Data gathered from Ron Paul's donation feed, the same one that feeds the flash donation tracker to the left.

Who made this? I'm Leo, but google may know me as generic shell. I had some spare time on my hands, hence this tracker.

Contact me via email. This page bears no official relation to the Ron Paul campaign, nor is it in any financial way supported by it. I just thought I'd put up some donation graphs.

Tea Party '07 snapshot - December 16, 2007

Donations Collected, in $1000

Donation Rate3, in $1000 per hour

Number of People Donating Per Hour

Donation Size, in $

Donation Rate³, in $1000 per hour