Ron Paul's November 5th Stats Snaphot
This is a snapshot of November 5th donations at 11:59pm.
live tracking here
||Since Oct 1
| November Projection
Donations Collected, in $1000
Donation Rate3, in $1000 per hour
Number of People Donating Per Hour
Donation Size, in $
These projections use a continuous exponential moving average with a half-life of 3 days. This is more appropriate than using OLS, since the donation data does not seem to satisfy the assumptions of the Gauss-Markov Thm (The best would probably be an exponential ARMA model, but I'm not sure people won't look at me funny if I do that).
The Exponential Moving Average is the best Q4 prediction method for various mathy reasons.
The points on the rate graphs are smoothed to a normal curve with a standard deviation of 15 minutes.
Moving Average totals are at best meaningless, and at worst misleading
here, since we know both the exact value and the general trend
(donations will always increase). Thus all a moving average of a total
would do is lag behind, and why it is omitted here.
The graphs are updated every 5 minutes. Source of the graph generator here.
This thing's run via cron every 10 minutes. It's a hack, but it works.
Data for Q4 and Q3 available upon request. If you want a graph with
more pleasant dimensions for use in a news story, just email me.
Data gathered from Ron Paul's donation feed, the same one that feeds the flash donation tracker to the left.
Contact me via email.
This page bears no official relation to the Ron Paul campaign, nor is
it in any financial way supported by it. I just thought I'd put up some